Australia’s export revenue is set to decline as prices for iron ore and coal experience a drop.

Australia’s commodity export earnings are projected to shrink in the coming years due to a decline in the prices of iron ore, liquefied natural gas, and coal, according to government forecasts. The Department of Industry, Science, and Resources anticipates a decrease in revenue due to fewer supply disruptions, relatively soft global economic growth, and a strengthening Australian dollar. Energy and resources exports are expected to fall to $408 billion in the year through June 2024, marking a 12% decline from the previous record high. The following year, a sharper slowdown is forecasted, with exports reaching $348 billion in 2024-25. While traditional export mainstays like iron ore and coal are expected to diminish, Australia aims to increase production of minerals crucial to the energy transition, including lithium, nickel, and copper. Despite a recent plunge in lithium prices, committed projects for battery metals have risen in value and now represent 9.3% of the total, paralleling the importance of iron ore. The report highlights a healthy investment outlook for Australia’s resources and energy sector, with lithium producers well-positioned to compete based on a strong long-term demand outlook. Committed resources and energy projects, where a final investment decision has been made, declined by 9.3% over the past year to A$77 billion, reflecting an increase in project completions.

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