Japan’s final GDP for the fourth quarter showed a 0.1% increase quarter-on-quarter, a significant improvement from the preliminary figure of -0.4%.

The final assessment reveals a substantial revision indicating Japan was not in recession:

In Q4 2023, Japan’s GDP showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of +0.1%, a marked improvement from the preliminary figure of -0.4% and the preceding -0.7%. On an annualized basis, the growth stood at 0.4% (preliminary -0.4%).

Private consumption saw a downward revision to -0.3% (preliminary -0.2%), marking a decline for the third consecutive quarter.

However, there was a positive revision in capital expenditure (+2.0% q/q, preliminary -0.1%).

Following this data release, both JGB yields and the yen experienced slight increases, albeit modestly.

This contrasts sharply with the initial reading, which had suggested Japan had fallen into recession.