July RBNZ Preview: Data Drought Discourages Dovish Shifts

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lacks sufficient data to adjust its hawkish guidance and is expected to keep rates on hold on July 10. Looking ahead, we believe non-tradable inflation won’t slow as much as the RBNZ anticipates in the second quarter, delaying any dovish shift until at least the autumn. The RBNZ will announce its monetary policy on July 10, and we expect rates to be held at 5.50%, in line with consensus and market expectations. We also anticipate no major changes in the macro assessment and forward guidance. This meeting does not include an update of economic projections, which will be published with the August 14 policy announcement.

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