Between 2022 and 2023, global orange production faced a trifecta of challenges—disease, hurricanes, and drought—nearly halving yields and striking hard at Florida and São Paulo, regions contributing over 85% to global orange output. This led to a classic supply crunch scenario, with demand outstripping supply, and consequently, a surge in orange juice prices, hitting an all-time high in October 2023, up by over 80% from the previous year. Meanwhile, a similar scenario may soon unfold in the digital realm with Bitcoin. Every four years, Bitcoin experiences a halving event, curtailing the influx of new supply into the market. Unlike planting more orange trees to boost yield, Bitcoin’s supply schedule is fixed and cannot be altered arbitrarily. While previous halving events have been significant for Bitcoin, the factors surrounding the upcoming April 2024 halving are unprecedented. This analysis will delve into the mechanics of the halving, its potential impact on Bitcoin’s price, and crucial considerations for the upcoming event.
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